Is the Mobility Sector Ground Zero for Opportunity?

welcome i'm terry kramer faculty director of 
the ucla anderson easton technology management   center and i want to welcome you to day two 
of the wu greater china business conference   and as all of you know we had our first day on 
tuesday evening pacific time wednesday morning   in the greater china area two great sessions we 
had on that first day we had jennifer zeus scott   she talked all about how ubiquitous ai is she 
talked about the power of data she talked about   web 3.0 the decentralized internet and more of a 
focus on empowering individuals to manage their   own data we also had a second session that was on 
the future of e-commerce and a fascinating look   once again at the role of data that can ultimately 
provide for predictive shipments it can provide   for better design of products can provide for 
better production of products to eliminate   waste and it's now my pleasure to talk about 
today's session and today's session is going   to be focused on the future of transportation 
and the future of finance specifically there   are three goals for our sessions number 
one is to understand the most promising   areas of innovation in both transportation and 
financial services and innovations not just in   products and services but also in business models 
second goal is to understand the unique context   and enablers in the greater china region 
that have allowed these innovations to occur   third goal is to get a better understanding of 
the types of winners in this area large companies   small entrepreneurial ventures unique approaches 
etc in our first session panelists are going to   explain the mobility sector and how that's going 
to become ground zero for a convergence of players   and a formation of an ecosystem that 
includes hardware and software providers   municipalities and broader government creating 
the opportunity and also uncertainty for   electric vehicles for autonomous vehicles from 
players and components all the way to players   that provide full mobility service uh provision 
the second session that we're going to have is   going to focus on the future financial services 
in the region and the ongoing transformation of   fintech in areas including blockchain and 
the role of sustainability in investments   now our first session is going to be moderated by 
terry mccarthy terry is the ceo of the american   society of cinematographers former president 
and ceo of the los angeles world affairs council   now known as the los angeles world affairs affairs 
council and town hall a supporting organization   for this week's conference terry spent more 
than 30 years with experience in journalism   television print media and non-profit management 
he's traveled throughout the us europe asia   and latin america as a reporter covering political 
military and societal issues in the first session   we'll hear how china's become a global leader in 
smart cities and over the decade with targeted   technological innovation has developed smart 
city infrastructure and invested significantly   in the digital transformation of its cities from 
clean driving to driverless taxis and trucks elect   electric vehicles of all types autonomous vehicles 
all of that will change the nature of on-road   driving and in the process revolutionize 
the automotive and mobility industries   for all of our sessions as you know we'll have 
time for audience questions please pose your   questions via the slido tool that is embedded in 
the bottom of your screen you can either enter in   your own question or upvote one of the existing 
questions a big welcome to all of our panelists   and let me now turn it over to terry thank you 
terry and pleasure to be here with such an august   panel um maybe i'll start by really briefly 
introducing our panelists and we have stella lee   who's the executive vice president of byd company 
and the president of byd motors in north america   and she joined byd in 1996 and opened byd's 
first office outside of china in that year   and then proceeded to open offices 
across europe and north america   and she now oversees all of byd's work 
outside business outside of outside of china   and then we have fun who's the founder and 
executive director of the innovation center   for energy and transportation which is 
based in both california and beijing   um and that is aimed at being a world-class 
think tank to accelerate transitions to zero   emission mobility and the clean engine energy 
future and prior to uh founding icet dr anne   served in various capacities for the u.s agency 
of international development the us department   of energy as their lawrence berkeley national 
laboratory um and the university of california   and finally um i'm delighted to welcome bill 
russo who is joining us from shanghai and   even though this conference is all about 
mobility there isn't a lot of mobility in   shanghai at the moment because bill is locked 
in like most other citizens in that great city   um he uh is the founder and ceo of automobility 
auto mobility limited a strategy investment   advisory firm and helping its clients create 
the future of mobility and he's also serving   as the chair of the automotive company committee 
at the american chamber of commerce in shanghai   and has been in the auto automobile industry 40 
years including 18 years living in china so um i   think we have a an extraordinarily um talented and 
broadly based panel here i'm going to to briefly   set up very briefly set up our conversation and 
of course climate change hangs over a lot of of   what is going on now with with next generation 
vehicles um there are some pretty shocking   statistics i don't have to go into all of them but 
just let me say um in terms of of auto emissions   uh you know just the cars in the united states 
alone generate about 1.5 million billion with a b   metric tons of co2 per year and that amount is 
about the same from china a little bit less 1.2   billion metric tons um of co2 from china so both 
countries producing an awful amount of of uh of   co2 and i think that globally um emissions from 
from vehicles account for more than quarter of   all of our greenhouse gases so this is a serious 
issue so of course there's a lot of work being   done on on other types of of mobility um electric 
vehicles of course are the most most well known   um china has put a lot of money into electric 
vehicles and we have our own um elon musk leading   the charge here but we're still the thin end 
of the wedge electric vehicles only account for   uh about less than one percent of total cars 
registered in the united states and in china it's   only is less than 2.5 percent so um the growth is 
coming but it's it's starting from very low base   i thought we might we might start with 
that because that's a question that sort of   uh links both the united states and china and 
maybe on you'd like to start with this question   um where do you see this market going and how 
quickly can it grow um we have some technologies   but there's some resistance um how do you 
see the development of of the ev market both   in china and in the united states and are they 
dramatically different models yeah i think the ev   market go up very rapidly uh you know in the last 
three four five years i in the evsl in china uh   last year uh reached over three upon five million 
units a lot of people predict you know the ub sale   in china alone uh we are close to three million 
units uh by end of this year so this is a huge   growth and i think china is leading the way uh 
for the deployment and department of eb markets   uh i think china started this eb program right 
after the financial crisis uh in 2009 you know   the eb is part of the pillar industry so in less 
than about 10 years of time i think you know   uh china really uh leapfrog uh you know as a 
major driver for the e-market but uh but if   you uh survey the rest of the other parts of the 
world like europe i think they are catching up   very rapidly i think the in some of the european 
countries there are kind of efficient new cell   ev sales actually surpass china in terms of you 
know the percentage sales and uh and the u.s has   california said the very aggressive ev targets 
like california wants to by 2035 100 of the   new car sale contract will be hundred percent of 
your ebays and the the administration applies 575   actually china does not have clear you know 
targets for the following market so actually   it's possible you know you've tried to uh stop 
you know to the trends of uh you know uh racket   uh scaling up i think you know uh and the u.s 
and the uh europe can catch us you must surpass   uh china in terms of the kind of efficiency but i 
think uh in the shade of volume kind of still that   is gonna be a global leader yeah thank you um 
bill paint if you would for us a picture of what   the ev market looks like in china you know we 
have a lot of people probably watching this panel   who haven't been to china certainly not in the 
last couple of years because of covet um and a   lot has changed in in in the last few years um in 
terms of of automobile sales in china what is it   what does it look like on the streets well 
in shanghai and and other cities and also   can you tell us why people are buying 
evs in china because in the united states   i think the climate change um mandate seems fairly 
strong you know we keep talking about reducing   greenhouse gases is it the same motivator 
in china or the other market forces at play   well you you have to uh first of all to go back to 
your first point on on urbanization and pollution   and the impact of transportation uh if you want i 
i can tell you anecdotally from having been locked   down for seven days in the city being locked down 
for the better part of a week i've seen more blue   sky in shanghai than i've seen in the nine years 
that i've lived here uh if there's a definite   link between human activity when you stop human 
activity the environment gets instantly better   right so transportation and human mobility 
contribute vastly to the environmental   problem that we have now what's different about 
china what's different about china is that   much like california it was a 
heavy dose of of intervention   and um i'd say in the in the midstream and 
upstream investments in the development of the   electric vehicle supply chain and manufacturing 
capacity uh understanding that energy security   uh for the nation was a priority and 
that an industry like uh automotive   where the core intellectual property of that 
industry is tied to the internal combustion engine   china was always a dependent nation when it 
came to both energy resources as well as the   intellectual property for the core asset of the 
mobility device itself so the electrification push   and there was definitely a push as [ __ ] alluded 
to since 2009 with promoting eb as a national   priority and having it part of the five-year 
plan dating back to the 863 program even before   right right really at the turn of the century 
recognizing that this was going to be a key   to the industrialization of china and to 
the economic development it was recognizing   that mobility stands at the core of economic 
development and that the intellectual property   of how we build and supply mobility devices 
is going to be an accelerator for forward   economic development it's understanding in the 
historical context that mobility innovation   is at the core of economic development putting 
enough incentives into the market to get in   manufacturers to experiment with the technology 
to build out the capability to produce evs that   was at the inception but it was never a market 
driven development until 2020 until june of 2020   with the uh launch of the tesla gigafactory in 
shanghai the market shifted from a push to more of   a demand pull economy where retail consumers were 
now shopping for evs and the beneficiary of that   isn't just tesla it's all of the eb manufacturing 
companies byd we'll hear from stella uh   you broke the barrier of selling a hundred 
000 units in march congratulations uh you   know clearly the market leader uh but now we're 
starting to see this shift of consumer interest   in the product category but it is not and 
i will emphasize this it is not driven by   environmental it's driven by technology 
the coolness of being uh in an ev   and the affordability of evs i think that's what 
the westminster that china got is not targeting   the premium market with the electrification 
products but targeting the mass market i think   that's really one of the core differences yeah 
you mentioned that last time we spoke the entry   price for an ev is is remarkably low um you can 
get cars for well under ten thousand dollars   u.s yeah the willing hong kong mini v has been 
a best-selling vehicle it's uh built by saic's   joint venture with general motors uh the cherry 
qq ice cream is also somewhere in the five to   ten thousand dollar range and i think the byd 
dolphin is also a very affordable ev that's not   the only thing you can get you can get you know 
mid priced and high and more premium evs from   even from chinese companies today but targeting 
the mid market at a price point with an affordable   uh bill of materials cost i think that's really 
what differentiates the china ev development   so electric vehicles really what we're talking 
about apart from a chassis and some seats   is a battery that's what makes these things work 
and i guess it's the the first thing you have   to get used to when you get an electric car used 
having been used to driving uh internal combustion   engine is there isn't a lot else in the car right 
it's just a big battery with the drive mechanism   um stella the development of the battery industry 
is clearly going to be key and there are a number   of issues that have yet to be solved and i wonder 
how you see the battery industry developing and   do you think that some of the key advances will 
come from china or from the west or both and you   have an interesting perspective because you almost 
have one foot in both both markets because you're   based here but working with chinese companies 
so how do you see the development of the battery   market going so in the next several years the 
the battery industry is is about the question   about the buildup capacity so the industry in 
next three years the industry already chosen   one is ncm cell and another trend is lfp sales so 
this this two chemistry one lead industry now the   industry is more frustrating about the shortage 
of elysium supplier and then the price inflation   i get too high and then all the supply 
chains price is too high so then with the   eevee markets i want to add some point to your 
question one the big difference in in china the   eva penetration is around the 20 in europe is 
22 but in uis is only 7 by this year's number   but last year number is less than 5 so there's a 
big difference here and also second difference is   like it for the fleet in u.s market we're talking 
about the car tesla is the the only companies has   like the model can supply the volume other 
company introduced model but they cannot deliver   the volume yet but then chinese markets also focus 
on fleet this fleet including the buses and also   trucks and then all the taxi so this this portion 
you will see that the center uh city of shenzhen   all the taxis electric vehicle all the bus is 
electric vehicle and then maybe next two years all   the trucks running on the city will be electric 
vehicle so we did then this same thing happened in   hanzo in xi'an in different cities but we did not 
see in u.s the fleet has been heavily electrified   yet so i think that's the huge difference because 
the fleet when you do electrification on the fleet   naturally you will build up the charging 
infrastructure to support the charging then   this will give the foundation for the people to 
build more charger for the their passenger car   so then you you automatically solve 
this training infrastructure issue   as regarding the battery technology uh a lot 
of people talking about the state solid cells   and then that is for r d and then it still 
takes some timing to be commercialized   and also as today i think like a bill 
mentioned byd car byd also introduced ebay   luxury model in china so the next hand 
ev we have is already promoting 650   kilometers range per charge and then this because 
chemistry is lfp so with our blade cell frp so   give your energy density but they also give you 
the uh like a safety of the cell so i would say   the battery technology next several years uh will 
continue maybe pushing for higher energy density   but the same times the whole car design will be 
more optimized and then to make the vehicle has   even similar cells similar pack but it can drive 
a much longer distance so our first like a high ev   introduced to the market the uh driving range is 
around the 400 kilometer but then the for the next   one the driver range will go to 650 kilometers 
per charge so that's the direction it's going now   and china versus the rest of the world in terms 
of battery advancement technology development   um you will see like in the battery supply chain 
you're talking about the ncm maybe family and the   lp family so china is many they jump from ncm 
cell now switch to lfp because of the safety   issue and then if you see oversea still 
a lot of people is using uh ncm cells   so then uh not too much focus on lfp yet 
so maybe the industry was shipped later one of the remarkable statistics that ucla so 
kindly dug up for me as i was preparing for this   is the amount of time the cars are 
not used so i guess in um in the u.s   about 80 percent of of um all trips are made by by 
personal vehicles in china it's it's closer to 60   but these private vehicles spend 95 percent of 
their life in a garage not being driven at all   and which raises the whole issue of public 
transport and i'd i'd like to actually get a   quick response from all three of our panelists 
on on where we see public transport going it's   something that's i guess the government has more 
of a role in in sort of mandating electrification   and we've seen that happen in various places 
around the united states school bus and so on   and where where does that go in the future 
um and then we can sort of develop that   also into smart cities but um i don't know 
phenomenon would you like to start on that and   um yeah um i think uh you know stella said you 
know the free vehicle you know a development   is very important you know i think what's the risk 
striking uh in china other electric fitness starts   from buses you know if you go back to 2009 the 
stock of 10 city southern vehicles that started a   piloting program for electric buses now five years 
ago 2017 you know the champion are all electric   buses in general achieve 100 electricity 
electrified so fortune alone there's more than 40   thousand electric deposits i think for the entire 
united states last year it's about three or four   thousands so for city center city alone there's 
ten times so i think that you know i i know the   uh the the u.s want to catch up want to electrify 
i think to electrify buses are the really uh very   important i think it's the most things that the 
government can can push for because that will   drive the demands for battery uh demands for the 
infrastructure development i think that's going   to be uh be a pretty uh you know uh strong uh push 
for uh for electrifying transportation so i would   say that would be the key i think of in terms of 
autonomous vehicles i think there is a certain   you know i think this will start from buses 
i think for personal transportation it's much   more challenging to have a fully uh you know 
self-driving autonomous vehicle freeze especially   in big cities like china now i think u.s will be 
the first to enable the you know the autonomous   vehicle like a robot tax uh in terms of personal 
transportation but i think china will need   to have autonomous uh electric buses uh 
system on the road that's my prediction   now stella you're you're making large numbers 
of buses in the united states how do you see it   um progressing that market i see like a it's very 
hard to convince people to give up a car to take   the bus operation in u.s because the bus system 
is not advanced modern lucky in europe in europe   most of people are taking like the buses and the 
tram and also subway but not in u.s this is a   is a who take a bus is unsafe middle class 
will never go to the taking the business so   that's a brand problem here so actually in u.s 
the infrastructures need is more advanced uh   solution other some like a sky rail like we are 
introducing now is a like a more modern and then   more quiet more high-end you go there you 
feel like a different and then uh also   like the the the once you build it out build up 
this one then the people maybe will be willing   to take more public transportation so i would 
say in china because of the traffic issue   and then the the nature of the people like it 
really enjoy the buses and also subway so more   people will maybe start to move away from 
their car to take or maybe uber dd in china   is and then also uh like a the the uh like a 
public transportation so u.s need change a lot   to attract people to take public transportation so 
this is the reason okay by the administration pass   1.3 trillion infrastructure fund to rebuild 
public infrastructure here in u.s and also for the   uh you mentioned very good pressure is a very 
interesting model for electrification if your   car you buy ninety percent you park in the 
garage you don't drive and then now with the   new technology like a v2 v2g v2l so if it's ev 
you can actually trade electricity while you you   are like a talking near idle so you can make some 
income maybe this income can be big enough outside   your lease payment for the car so that is some 
kind of a value add solution for electric vehicle bill you you've spent 40 years in the automobile 
industry and you surely know better than   than anyone how much particularly in the united 
states people's identities are defined by the car   you drive right and that's what advertising of of 
different car models is targeted at you know you   you have a certain character type you drive 
certain car and so on so forth but i'm curious to   to to ask your view if we if we develop more 
along the models that we're heading towards   and i think mobility as a service is the sort 
of the the uh uh the in way to describe that   you you have to reset the the the whole model 
of this that you're not you're not so much   identifying with you're a ford mustang driver 
or you're a whatever it is a porsche driver or   a prius driver that you're somebody who needs to 
get from point a to point b and do certain things   and there are certain ways that you can do that 
with certain financial you know you pay more for   a an uber than you pay for a subway whatever so 
on um i'm wondering how you see that developing   and particularly in china and and to what extent 
that would require government intervention on how   much of that comes from the market and how this 
all plays out because it seems like there are a   lot of different directions this could all go yeah 
well the first thing you have to do is it's it's   not conflate ownership and in usership because 
they're two different use cases that the   same person can make different choices so we 
tend to look at people and say okay are they   going to buy a car are they going to book a a 
ride and the fact is everyone does both the fact   is everyone does both uh mobility context in china 
is vastly different than in the u.s or in the west   far more people ride than drive even if they 
own cars uh people tend to have short distance   commuter patterns and most miles that are traveled 
are traveled in commuting short distances so we're   not talking about urban to suburban that's not the 
normal some people do it if they like to spend an   hour in traffic they do it most people drive 
short distances in cities the economic engine   of development of china has been urbanization you 
know this is a population that was 20 urbanized in   1980 it's 65 percent urbanized today people have 
moved to cities to accumulate uh better lifestyles   better better uh you know afford you know more 
upgrade their lifestyle but as they move to cities   cities have become more congested um which is uh 
in the world of dense urban populations commuting   in a cell phone vehicle is a pain point doesn't 
mean you wouldn't buy a car but you're not going   to buy a car to take it to and from work 
i'm going to drag hardware around with you   you're more likely even if you have a car to 
book a ride to get to and from work or to have a   driver so you don't have to deal with parking you 
have to deal with all the associated pain points   associated with that so making shared mobility 
convenient and democratized through the power   of the internet is what makes markets like china 
very special uh we it was it was pretty good in   your in your video the qr code society we don't 
we don't transact business in cash it's painless   you know frictionless you know pay for the ride 
book a ride very very common behavior in china   in fact didi uh before the pandemic uh i think 
it's still true today most of the miles traveled   in electric vehicles in china is the 
dominant player is didi uh because their   cars move all the time and they have a high 
penetration of electric vehicles in the fleet   um so when you think of the the commercialization 
of technology shared mobility came first   intelligent connected vehicles are now the the 
standard right the cars have to be connected to   the transportation system and to the users that 
orchestrate the uh the platforms for mobility   electrification makes sense in shared 
mobility why because it drives down the   cost of operation of the vehicle it's easier 
to maintain lower fuel costs and autonomous   driving will eventually reduce the driver 
cost so the power of the internet and its   algorithmic ability to precisely match mobility 
demand with the supply of mobility devices is   the key disruption and has been the accelerator 
for the exponential growth of these technologies bill just one more follow-up and then i'm going to 
go to the other panelists from the same topic so   when you arrived in china 18 years ago the model 
was you know you had foreign car companies you   know the volkswagens and the gms manufacturing in 
china and china learning from that and starting to   build its own car manufacturers and yet we still 
have not seen really any significant export of   chinese cars to certainly the united states i mean 
buses that's what stella does but the cars know   um i'm wondering how you see the electric vehicle 
market developing are we going to see a flood of   these uh vehicles that are being made in china 
coming to the united states no does tesla work   out how to crack the chinese market um and and how 
is that going to play out in you will see you will   see chinese components embedded in vehicles 
that are sold in the united states first i   mean you're probably already seeing that a little 
bit with tesla today they buy a lot of batteries   lfp batteries they didn't they 
did nmc as as was said earlier   by stella uh but in china they they pivoted to 
lithium iron phosphate to be competitive on price   uh you'll see more and more uh companies 
making evs with supply chain relationships with   companies in china uh the vehicles 
the vehicles will go to europe first   there's already active uh sourcing of chinese evs 
to the european market uh targeting mainly rental   fleets and those types of use cases they'll also 
be dealerships that will want to have access to   good quality evs that are coming from uh places 
like china uh neo byd uh you know xiaopong   already making their their approaches 
interestingly the one asian country   uh that has made it's put its flag in the ground 
about a week ago it was announced by joe biden   in north carolina the the company called vin 
fast uh from vietnam uh will be building electric   vehicles in the united states so don't think it 
won't come it just may not come first from china i   think china will pivot to europe first for reasons 
that i think are obvious geopolitical reasons   that's interesting um you have some views on 
this too i know since we talked about this before   me your father u.s to to sell about 
chinese to sell cars well on the on the   the the sort of the competition between 
chinese evs and us evs particularly tesla   yeah i i i think you know the you 
know the i think the pressure for   the domestic market in china is so severe i 
think all the you know right now the you know   the evening makers intern in china probably 
dominates like byd you know also tesla that's   a group of kind of smaller upcoming startups so 
the company i think those most of this company   just trying to survive the chinese market i don't 
think they actually have serious effort to export   because they need to establish itself people to 
be stable to be done to be survival and uh but   i i think from technology front i think tesla is 
still the leader uh you know because it's very in   terms of their manufacture ability and their uh 
margins of profitability i think it's very hard   they have something like early lead advantage i 
think it's very hard to to beat tesla in terms of   you know the profitability it's very similar 
to like apple case so you could have a lot of a   cell phone company right so uh competing with 
apple but apple's market is so much bigger   than the rest of the you know uh you know uh 
competitors so that's why their valuation is   so much higher i think that's going to be 
uh what the future evening market will look   like i think the tesla may not be no it's 
a it's a leader clearly is a uh you know   in terms of share value but as a gm for all these 
uh traditional automakers start to put ebs i think   uh their volume will start to catch up but i think 
they cannot match uh the marketing and innovation   you know of tesla because tyler is always like 
a half step ahead of everyone else so i want   to see the ui is actually a higher advantage in 
the uv uh manufacturers uh you know so i think   the the conception that the u.s is losing the 
battle you know i think it's a is a misplaced   because tesla is clear winner i think unlike 
the bill said that the reason that you know the   the tesla the success in the marketplace it 
really uh energized the whole chinese uh you know   domestic indigenous uh uh makers ebay maker before 
because there's a period of time you know the ebay   has really a struggle and all you've been saying 
and how you know the tesla you know uh you know to   financially become successful then you know other 
ev makers in china receive a huge uh financial   support you know like neo and chopin you know 
all that you know because people see what tesla   can achieve so they have competence the investors 
from government from primary capital start to pour   you know that into you know those competitors so 
i would say that actually tesla you know really uh   release the charge in that guard so stella i'm 
i'm getting a whole bunch of questions in from   the audience and i'm going to turn to you because 
you're um a lot of questions are are heading your   direction and there's a couple here um traditional 
ice carves average life is 15 years or so with a   battery life of eight years do you think there 
will be more turnaround when we move to a hundred   percent electric vehicles um and then there's 
a second question which is about ev battery   demand on minerals are there sufficient accessible 
minerals and materials to meet the demand for ev   batteries in china and the us over the next 
five to ten years so what about the battery   life versus the life span of the car and um 
how about the components for those batteries   so all are very good questions so actually 
for current technology fp is showing up   the advantage is they have a longer left turn 
so in the in our lab we do like a this one c   charge once it is charged finish on the pack level 
is 10 000 cycles that means without the consider   you you lost some range there then 
the battery can last for 30 years   so when we design the ev our destinations design 
the batteries as long uh the battery life cycle is   a lot as long as the request itself so even to 
retire from the buses from the trucks from the   consumer car we can repurpose put into the 
battery storage so that's our destination   so by that reason if there's some company using 
cobalt based like a battery you get a higher   energy density maybe you got a last week you got a 
longer driving distance but the province the okay   nico cobo the content is the world cup limit 
so our opinion speech in the very beginning   is always like a we should for you for massive 
like a 100 transaction to the ev the lfp sales   is the is the best solution because you can gather 
even today maybe listen carbonate price is higher   in the history okay but then this is just because 
in the short term the supply chain have a shortage   then you have to allow the middleman to produ to 
do the work here then the industry is supplying   the like a 10 shortage in large amplified to 
30 shortage but then this will be smooth lines   once the industry rebalance in next 
three years to be more focused on the   lucky the supplier the cost of a 
listing coupling will be smoothlies   and then to be stabilized and then in the earth 
there are two like a metal is a rich resource   one is iron the second one is lithium so 
you can gather even lesions from the ocean   so you just in the next 10 years with all the 
refunding technology improved then the cost   to get the vcr will be also reduced then you 
have a lot of like a place you can get it into um there's another question let me just add it to 
you stella and then i'll move on to the to some   others for the other members but the question 
about battery disposal sort of the other end   of this cycle and you've said that you can make 
the battery suit the age of the car 15 whatever   plus years um but what about techniques for for 
disposal of batteries and so actually yeah so   now for battery like a disposal and also recycling 
now it's become valuable business so the a lot of   companies even for byd we we will want like the uh 
we give you a longer warranty term but we want it   on the battery so by the end of the life you just 
send the battery back to us we will do recycling   when you do recycling you will get the recycled 
elisium aluminum out from this uh like a used   battery so in the future all today like a um like 
it the abandoned batteries become the value now   so a lot of companies fighting for that want 
to do recycling business okay thank you so   um here's a question for um maybe bill china has 
set a target for new energy vehicles to make up   20 of new car sales by 2025.

Do you think the 
chinese government will increase this target i   suppose increase that number percentage-wise um 
beyond 2025. well when when they hit it in 2023   it's going to need an adjustment we're going 
to already had months where we've approached 20   uh in in 2021 uh i think across the 
board it was 13 percent for the year uh   and uh yeah it's it's definitely gonna we're 
going to surpass you know barring any uh   reversal of trend which is unlikely 
right because the market's scaling   more and more entrance the global automotive 
industry uh having worked in it for a long   time and having managed capital investment plans 
you can it's too capital intensive to bet on two   horses in this race you've got to decide one 
or the other and you what you're seeing is   a massive shift of the global automakers toward 
the electrification uh you know when the when the   japanese finally threw their hat in and said we're 
gonna go into the ev that said get better bets are   off right they were holding on to conventional 
hybrids and ice assisted propulsion on the   hopes that maybe fuel cell would replace battery 
electric vehicle it clearly fuel cell is you know   too far down the road to even imagine it being 
in the strike zone of the capital investment plan   uh so bev is the game everyone's going to play 
the question really isn't whether it's going to   hit 20 percent question is how high will it go 
and how quickly we get there and who gets to share   that pie the foreign oems in china you talked 
earlier about you know foreign oems opening the   market they have for the longest time dominated 
the the automotive industry in terms of market   share um i when i first came here it was all it 
was 2004 and it was pretty much you know a very   small slice for the chinese it was pretty much all 
of the sino-foreign jb's selling all the products   uh today automotive sales about 60 of 
the market goes to the foreign brands 40   to the chinese brands in the ev segment 
it's 80 to the chinese local brands 80   the other 20 is pretty much tesla and 
everyone else everyone else is other   in china right now but the but they're all now 
committed because they can't lose china right but   they're late and the chinese have the early mover 
advantage in terms of the electrification trend   so terry i like to add to this one we're in the 
car industry we know the market very well actually   at the ebay penetration in last year is 20 it's 19 
in 20 percent but our ebay is including uh like a   plug-in hybrid and also ev and then by this year 
in the figure of march like a byd delivered like   100 000 so then we are one of the leading 
companies in china and then like a by monthly   number is march the china ebay market already uh 
be more than 30 percent so this is 30 in also this   year the comparing with last year the difference 
the pure bev ratio is increasing before the 50   to 50 now is almost 70 to 30.

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